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Salam Sejahtera,

Bermula dari niat awal saya yang ingin berbagi ilmu dan informasi yang sangat bermanfaat, ditambah lagi dengan moment yang sangat tepat di internet mulai tahun 2005 ini yang dapat dimanfaatkan untuk mencari penghasilan tambahan di internet tanpa harus merekrut downline ataupun berpromosi. Serta semangat "anti Korupsi, Kolusi & Nepotisme (KKN)" yang pastinya menyengsarakan masyarakat.

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Saya adalah professional trader yang telah berpengalaman sejak 2004 di Forex Market (Pasar Valas) di Jakarta, hingga sekarang masih trading online dari rumah dan kantor saya. Apabila anda berminat berinvestasi di Bursa, deposit yang diwajibkan minimal adalah USD $ 5000! Namun setelah anda menerapkan apa yang saya tawarkan dan ajarkan, anda tidak perlu modal apapun lagi!

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Saya akan menawarkan kepada anda bagaimana mencari uang di internet yaitu dengan cara bermain di pasar valuta asing secara online. Tanpa harus menitipkan modal pada orang, yang mana sejak 5 tahun terakhir ini, bisnis HYIP (High Yield Investment Program) sangat menjamur dan 90% biasanya berujung pada ketidakpuasan consumer karena kurangnya transparansi para adminnya--akhirnya berujung pada SCAM!

Untuk itulah, melalui website sederhana ini, saya ingin memberitahukan supaya anda tidak terpancing mengikuti program semacam itu.

Valas / Forex Margin Trading atau perdagangan mata uang asing saat ini sudah sangat mudah dilakukan dari rumah atau Warnet. Dengan modal komputer yang tersambung ke internet, kita sudah bisa melakukan perdagangan mata uang asing dari mana saja, rumah, kantor, warnet, dsb. Berbeda jauh dengan Commision House atau perusahaan Bursa Berjangka, di mana kita harus menyetorkan sejumlah uang untuk membuka Account di perusahaan tersebut.

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Pasar valas/forex berjalan selama 24 jam, berputar mulai dari pasar New Zaeland & Australia yang berlangsung pukul 05.00–14.00 WIB, terus ke pasar Asia yaitu Jepang & Singapura yang berlangsung pukul 07.00–16.00 WIB, ke pasar Eropa yaitu Jerman & Inggris yang berlangsung pukul 13.00–22.00, sampai ke pasar Amerika yang berlangsung pukul 20.30–10.30. Dalam perkembangan sejarahnya, bank sentral milik negara-negara dengan cadangan mata uang asing yang besar sekalipun dapat dikalahkan oleh kekuatan pasar forex/valas yang bebas.

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Besarnya biaya yang harus disetorkan untuk membuka account pada perusahaan yang menyelenggarakan Valas / Forex Online Margin Trading bervariasi, mulai dari US$500 (Rp. 5.000.000 dengan asumsi kurs dolar ke rupiah Rp.10.000) sampai US$10000 (Rp. 100.000.000 dengan asumsi kurs dolar ke rupiah Rp. 10.000). Sungguh besar modal yang dikeluarkan untuk dapat memulai bisnis Valas / Forex Margin Trading.

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Tapi, sekarang jika anda telah memiliki modal utama yaitu Akses Internet, apakah itu di rumah sendiri atau di Warnet, tak jadi masalah yang penting bisa akses internet. Kendala modal yang besar itu bisa ditanggulangi dengan bergabung dengan perusahaan Valas / Forex Online Margin Trading yang memberi keringanan dalam soal pembukaan Account. Sekarang telah ada bursa online minimal $1 dengan e-currency!* , yaitu Marketiva. Selain itu, ada beberapa yang menawarkan mulai $1 hingga $300 dengan mini accountnya.

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Dengan membuka account di Marketiva, Anda akan mendapatkan US$ 5 (real money) secara cuma-cuma yang bisa langsung digunakan untuk trading. Jika Anda bisa mengembangkan uang ini, maka Anda akan bisa menariknya ke account e-gold Anda. Enak sekali bukan?

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Selain itu, Anda juga akan mendapatkan virtual money sebesar US$ 10000 (sepuluh ribu dolar), uang virtual itu bisa dimanfaatkan untuk belajar/latihan trading agar bisa memahami tata cara trading, strategy, pergerakan harga, dan lain-lain. Setelah Anda merasa percaya diri maka Anda bisa langsung menggunakan uang $5 yang telah anda dapatkan secara cuma-cuma untuk melakukan live trading (trading betulan).

Sekarang saya akan menawarkan kepada anda bagaimana cara mencari uang di internet, merekomendasikan yang paling aman buat anda semua, cuma dengan modal $1 dengan cara sebagai berikut:

1. Apply member bursa di internet: Marketiva , gratis $5 yang bisa anda kembangkan uangnya sepuasnya. Trading mulai 1 cent! (leverage 1:100) dengan 17 pairs instrument ! Setelah itu, download Novativa Streamster-nya... Novativa Streamster adalah software aplikasi yang di install di komputer anda untuk melakukan trading secara langsung baik anda berada di rumah,di kantor, di kamar, di mobil maupun di wc sekalipun asalkan komputer anda terhubung dengan internet..Anda bisa coba2 dulu melakukan trading dengan uang $5 gratis yang anda peroleh begitu anda mendaftar menjadi member Marketiva.. Jika anda merasa uang $5 tersebut tidak mencukupi untuk melakukan trading,maka anda bisa melakukan deposit dengan mengikuti langkah2 yg akan kita jabarkan di langkah ke 2.

2. Deposit dengan menggunakan wire transfer.

Apa itu wire transfer? Wire transfer adalah pengiriman uang ke luar negeri melalui bank lokal di dalam negeri yang dikirimkan langsung ke rekening si penerima di luar negeri..Semua bank bisa melakukan wire transfer dan biaya yg dikenakan di setiap bank mungkin berbeda beda antara bank yg satu dengan yang lain.. Kalau saya biasanya menggunakan bank BCA..biasanya dalam2-3 hari, pengiriman uang nya sampai. Yang perlu diperhatikan dalam penggunaan wire transfer adalah,pada saat kita menulis nota pengiriman uang ke luar negeri :

a. kita harus mengecek berapa kurs Dollar US terhadap rupiah pada saat ini. Mengenai hal ini bisa ditanyakan ke teller bagian valas di bank yg bersangkutan. Jadi kita bisa mengetahui berapa rupiah yg mesti kita kirim berdasarkan kurs dollar pada hari tersebut..misalnya jika kurs 1 US$= Rp.10.000, maka jika kita mau mengirimkan US$ 100 maka uang yg kita kirimkan adalah RP.1000.000 .

b. setiap bank di seluruh dunia memiliki SWIFT CODE. antara bank yg satu dengan yg lain memiliki SWIFT CODE yg berbeda beda. jadi tidak ada satupun bank yg memiliki SWIFT CODE yang sama. Jadi SWIFT CODE bank tujuan mesti disertakan pada saat kita akan mengirimkan uang ke luar negeri..

Berikut ini adalah data penerima dan bank penerima dari perusahaan Marketiva.

Penerima:

Finativa Broker-Dealer AD

Address:

Bulevar Ivana Crnojevica 107
Podgorica, 20000
Montenegro

Account № / IBAN:
ME25510000000002113088

Bank Name:
CKB AD

Bank Address:
Moskovska BB
Podgorica, 20000
Montenegro

Bank SWIFT Code:
CKBCMEPG

Intermediary SWIFT Code:
SCBLUS33

2. Deposit dengan menggunakan e-currency
1. Apply e-currency (mata uang elektronik) sebagai mata uang elektronik yang paling aman dan terbanyak digunakan di seluruh dunia.

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Sekilas Mengenai e-currency

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Dalam setiap aktifitas eBisnis, kita pasti membutuhkan suatu alat pembayaran digital dalam bertransaksi. Alat pembayaran digital ini disebut e-Currency yaitu alat pembayaran yang sah dan bias diterima secara umum di seluruh dunia, misalnya Credit Card. Namun pemakaian credit card melalui media internet masih banyak memunculkan masalah terutama tingkat keamanannya, apalagi Indonesia sekarang dalam kondisi ter-blacklist oleh sebagian merchant internasional karena tingginya angka "carding" atau penyalahgunaan di Indonesia. Sehingga sebagai alternatif untuk melakukan transaksi secara online di Internet kita dapat menggunakan beberapa alternatif e-currency diantaranya:

a. web money

b. liberty reserve

c. e-dinar

Jika anda berdomisili di Indonesia, lebih dianjurkan untuk apply di e-currency web money dan liberty reserve saja karena jasa penukarannya lebih banyak daripada e-dinar. Atau anda juga bisa langsung menggunakan wire transfer jika tidak mau ribet dan berbelit belit...

2. Apply member di tukarduid , juraganegold ,medangold ,kliktukar untuk membeli mata uang tersebut dengan Bank di seluruh Indonesia: BCA, Mandiri, BNI, dsb......

Semua link yang saya rekomendasikan di atas adalah GRATIS!
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NB:

* e-currency = mata uang elektronik (dalam US$--default-- ataupun mata uang asing lainnya di dunia) sebagai pengganti mata uang riil dan dapat digunakan untuk order barang secara online ataupun alat pembayaran yang sah.
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Forex Online Trading Ini benar - benar Pekerjaan nyata di Internet dari Rumah / Kantor anda Anda benar - benar mendapatkan Pekerjaan Terbaik di Internet. Menjadi seorang Trader sukses adalah Pekerjaan yang di idam - idamkan ribuan orang di Indonesia. Selain waktu kerjanya fleksibel , income penghasilan yg didapat mencapai Ribuan US $ Dollar. Membuat uang BEKERJA untuk anda, cara gampang cari duit dari rumah.

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Forex Online Trading adalah Trend investasi masa kini. Apakah sudah siap menjadi TRADER sukses ? YA ! Anda pasti siap , karena disini ada proses Belajarnya , ada Free Trial sebelum melakukan Real Transaction. Jadi sama aja kuliah kerja nyata , pertama kali memang bingung , beranikan mencoba, pasti pengalaman dan mahir kemudi

Pilihlah tempat untuk Trading berikut ini :

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1. MARKETIVA Trading Company

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Marketiva adalah perusahaan penyedia layanan Trading online dari Switzerland , Eropa. Layanan service nya masih baru tetapi cukup cepat populer di Internet. Setiap orang bisa melakukan Trading dengan modal awal cuma $ 1 saja. Nah coba serius di Marketiva , anda bisa bekerja Trading dari rumah bersama seluruh Keluarga atau di sela - sela jam istirahat di Kantor.

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KEUNGGULAN Marketiva antara lain sebagai berikut:

1. Marketiva provides spot forex on major currency pairs and crosses
2. $5 cash reward you can start trading right away; tight spreads from 3 pips; trading on 1% margin
3. virtual and live desks within one account
4. latest news, alerts on market events, signals, no market commissions
5. zero-interest on open positions, 24-hour support, chat channels, the most sophisticated and 6. easy-to-use forex charting tool
6. ability to trade from the charts and the best forex trading software available!

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Start awal yg mudah seperti ini : Open Account Marketiva disini sekarang > Download Stremster > Login > Group Indonesia Pada saat membuka account , anda mendapat gratis Us $ 5.

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Perhatian : Untuk meng aktifkan Streamster agar bisa login , anda diminta mengirimkan identitas foto dan alamat lengkap. Karena Marketiva adalah perusahaan Legal dan Professional, berusaha melindungi anda dari hal - hal yg tidak di inginkan.

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Login di streamster yg anda download, pilih channel group indonesia. Anda bisa chat, diskusi, Belajar rame - rame disini dengan member - member lain, pasti anda akan berani mencoba dan cepat pintar, terus simpan alamat ini di favourite browser, panduan di marketiva : baca 3 x sehari

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SUKSES di Marketiva Forex Online Trading.

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The Greatest Investors profile

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Berikut ini adalah profil singkat dari beberapa investor dan trader professional dunia termasuk salah satunya adalah George Soros. Para analis keuangan memperkirakan pendapatan soros $4000/menit....wow...ck....ck...Selamat membaca dan semoga berguna untuk membangun visi bisnis forex

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Becoming a successful investor takes education, patience and maybe even a little luck. But investing other people's money is an entirely different ball game. Money managers rely on hard work, intelligence and discipline to recognize opportunities other professionals may have missed.
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Historically, the market has returned a solid 12% per year on average. The seven icons below represent the pinnacle of the financial world. Each one has dramatically exceeded market performance. They have all made a fortune off their success but, more importantly, so have the millions of people who invested with them.
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1. John (Jack) Bogle
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Born : Montclair, New Jersey in 1929
Employer : Founder and Chairman of The Vanguard Group
Most Famous For : Often referred to as the father of index fund investing, he's the creator of the first S&P 500 index fund.
Less Celebrated For: Admits that mutual funds "haven't been up front with investors - top fund performance has always been followed by mediocre returns".
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Quote: "If you have trouble imagining a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn't be in stocks."
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Background:
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Bogle is considered a pioneer in the mutual fund industry. He introduced the first S&P 500 index fund ever - the Vanguard 500 Index - which debuted in 1976. On countless occasions, he has stated that investors shouldn't be so worried about trying to beat the markets and should join the markets instead. His index funds were characterized as low cost and low maintenance and allowed several millions of investors to participate in the greatest bull market ever. He rejects "today's emphasis on witchcraft and mystery" in investing, and supports a "back to basics" strategy. In his opinion, these are the investment principles which have proven to be successful for over 75 years.
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2. Warren Buffett
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Born : Omaha, Nebraska in 1930
Employer : Berkshire Hathaway Chairman
Most Famous For : A $10,000 investment into Berkshire Hathaway when Buffett took control in 1965 would be worth over $50 million today. By comparison, $10,000 in the S&P 500 would have grown to only $500,000.
Less Celebrated For: Buffett is considered by many to be a real Scrooge (in fact his personalized license plate reads, "Thrifty"). Reportedly he is only going to bequeath around $3 to $4 million to each of his children, despite his $40+ billion net worth. However, he does so with good intentions and plans on leaving the vast majority of his fortune to charitable causes.
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Quote: "If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians."
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Of Interest: Ever wondered exactly where Mr Buffett is Investing?
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Background:
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Also known as "The Oracle of Omaha," many people consider Buffett the greatest investor ever. Even with all the success and accolades, he still lives in the house he bought for $31,500 over 40 years ago. What's most intriguing about Buffett is that he is one of the few extremely rich people who has amassed wealth solely through investing in stocks. His investment strategy of discipline, patience and value consistently outperforms the market and his moves are followed by thousands of investors worldwide.
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He is also famous for not joining the infamous tech/Internet stock rally in the late 1990s, stating that he refuses to invest in companies that he can't visualize 10 years down the road.

Great Buffet Quotes"
Rule No.1: Never lose money.
Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1."

"Someone's sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago."
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"Wall Street is the only place that people ride to in a Rolls Royce to get advice from those who take the subway."
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"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."
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3. Peter Lynch
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Born : United States in 1944
Employer : Former Fidelity fund manager, today he is vice-chairman of Fidelity
Most Famous For : When he started managing the Fidelity Magellan Fund in 1978, it had assets of $20 million. When he retired in 1990, it had assets of $14 billion.
Less Celebrated For: Some people were none too pleased when Lynch, one of the greatest, retired at the tender age of 46.
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Quote: "Go for a business that any idiot can run - because sooner or later, any idiot probably is going to run it."
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Background:
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Lynch is arguably the world's most famous mutual fund manager. Often described as a chameleon, he adapted to whatever investment style worked at the time (growth vs. value). He was one of the first to uncover hidden gems such as Dunkin' Donuts, Pier 1 Imports and Taco Bell. People began to criticize Lynch once his fund surpassed $1 billion in assets in the early 1980s, but the fund rose to $13 billion less than seven years later. He admits to taking plenty of risks while managing the Magellan Fund, but he never suffered a losing year.
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According to Valueline, "a $10,000 investment into Magellan in 1978 and then adding $100 per month, would add up to over $1 million, in 20 years!" While at the helm of Magellan, Lynch achieved an average annual return of 29% a year.
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4. Julian Robertson
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Born : Salisbury, NC in 1933
Employer : Founder/Chairman, Tiger Management Corp.
Most Famous For : A titan of hedge fund investing, his funds today require a minimum investment of $5 million per person. He turned $8 million in 1980 into over $8 billion in the late 1990s.
Less Celebrated For: Remembered for losing $200 million in 1996 when a "bet" on U.S. Treasuries went wrong.
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Quote: "[O]ur mandate is to find the 200 best companies in the world and invest in them, and find the 200 worst companies in the world and go short on them. If the 200 best don't do better than the 200 worst, you probably should get in another business."
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Background:

At his peak, no one could beat him for sheer stock-picking acumen. Robertson was the "Wizard of Wall Street" and was paid well for it. In 1993, his compensation and share of Tiger's mammoth gain reportedly exceeded $300 million. His current estimated net worth is over $400 million. Robertson had the best hedge fund record throughout the 1980s and early '90s. The compound rate of return to his investors was 32%.
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Because of the "irrational" technology stock craze, Robertson suffered large losses in the late 1990s. This ultimately led him to close his investment company and liquidate its $6 billion in investments - investments which had once reached a high of $26 billion.
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5. Michael Steinhardt
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Born : 1941Employer : Founder, Steinhardt Partners
Most Famous For : $1 invested with Steinhardt when he founded his firm in 1967 would be worth $462 today.
Less Celebrated For: Steinhardt didn't exactly go out with a bang. He ended his illustrious hedge fund career in 1995, a year after suffering big losses.
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Quote: "In the 1950s and 1960s, the heroes were the long-term investors; today the heroes are the wise guys."
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Background:
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Like George Soros, Steinhardt made most of his fortune managing a hedge fund. Hedge funds tend to be risky propositions, especially because they are usually limited to about 100 investors with minimum stakes of $1 million. This is unlike a mutual fund, which accepts any investor, large or small. Hedge fund is synonymous with high risk and Steinhardt once stated: "our fund's risk factor can, at least in theory, vary from plus 200% to minus 200%." Steinhardt's fund produced an average annual return of 24%, netting him a personal fortune reportedly worth over $500 million.
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Lately, Steinhardt has become a prominent philanthropist, giving away millions of dollars each year to various charities. He is also founder of the Jewish Life Network, which sponsors a number of major Jewish outreach initiatives and organizations.
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6. George Soros
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Born : Budapest in 1930
Employer : Founder of Soros Fund Management
Most Famous For : A highly respected currency speculator, he once shorted the British Pound for a one day gain in excess of $1 billion.
Less Celebrated For: Although not entirely responsible, Soros' comments on the Russian economy contributed to its stocks plunging 12% in the first hour of trading. Five days later, the currency had devalued 25%.
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Quote : "It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong."
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Background:
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Known as a hedge fund guru, Soros' expertise is mainly in currency speculation. He is principal investment advisor for the Quantum Fund, which is recognized for having the best performance record of any investment fund in the world over its 26-year history. If you invested $100,000 in 1969 when Soros established the Quantum Fund and reinvested all dividends, your investment would have been worth over $150 million by the spring of 1994. At one point, analysts estimated Soros was earning over $4000 a minute.
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7. John Templeton
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Born : Winchester, Tennessee in 1912
Employer : Founder of the Templeton Group
Most Famous For : Created some of the world's largest and most successful global investment funds using his independent investment strategy.
Less Celebrated For: More recently, his funds have failed to provide the astounding gains his followers were used to, partly due to the recent Asian recession.
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Quote: "The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell."
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Background:
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Templeton is a true pioneer of the global mutual fund industry. He has led the charge for teaching investors to explore the world for great investments. Investing overseas was virtually unheard of until investors caught on to Templeton's strategy. Today, the Templeton Group's combined assets exceed $25 billion.
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Besides pioneering global investing, a great example of his independent investment strategy occurred in 1939. With the outbreak of war looming, a twentysomething Templeton bought every stock selling for under $1 per share on the major exchanges. Within four years, he had quadrupled his money.
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Templeton is one of the strongest proponents of diversification. He once stated that "the only investors who shouldn't diversify are those who are right 100% of the time."Another one of Templeton's success stories is a man by the name of Leroy Paslay. He was one of Templeton's earliest investors, giving him $65,500 to invest in 1954. 40 years later, Paslay was worth over $37 million.
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After making billions through his innovative approach to investing, he has now become one of the world's greatest philanthropists. In 1987, he founded the $1/4 billion John Templeton Foundation.

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English Language

Welcome,

Begin with my early intention who want to share knowledge and information that very beneficial, and with the exactly moment in the internet begin from this 2006, I will tell you how to look for the additional income from the internet without must recruit downline or do some promotions. As well as the spirit of "anti Corruption, Collusion & Nepotism" that definitely tormented the community.

AUDUSD tops out after stops triggered

AUDUSD stops were triggered above 9250 on the back of AUDJPY buying out of Tokyo before topping out at 9265. AUDUSD is finding support via buoyant Asian bourses. Personally, I feel the market is getting long again. I will look to sell on a rally towards 93c with a stops above 9340.

The opinions and analysis offered on Forexlive are for educational purposes only and clients and prospects are advised to carefully consider the opinions and recommendations offered by the analysts and to use the analysis and opinions in conjunction with the client and/or prospects own independent analysis.

CURRENCIES: Dollar Slumps Versus Euro As Gold Futures Soar

The dollar gained slightly on the yen but retreated against the euro in Asian-hours trading Monday, as soaring gold futures pressured the greenback against its European counterpart.

The dollar bought 90.06 yen, up from 89.88 yen in late North American trade Friday, while the euro rose to $1.4940, up from $1.4840

Gold futures climbed to new heights in electronic trading in Asia, with the most-active December contract tapping an intraday high of $1,105 an ounce, as the market extended gains from Friday's record New York finish.

At the weekend meeting in Scotland of finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20 leading economic powers, attendees agreed to keep massive stimulus measures in place until the global recovery strengthens.

In a report to the G20, the International Monetary Fund cited signs that the dollar is being used as a funding currency for carry trades, which involve borrowing funds denominated in lower-interest currencies -- such as the dollar and yen -- and investing in higher-yielding assets denominated in other currencies.

"These trades may be contributing to upward pressure on the euro and some emerging-economy currencies," the IMF said. "The euro has experienced most appreciation among major advanced economy currencies and remains on the strong side of its equilibrium."

On Friday, the dollar had edged lower against the yen and traded nearly flat against the euro, after a surprise jump in the U.S. jobless rate to more than 10% comforted views the Federal Reserve will stick to a loose monetary policy.

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Learn to trade currencies

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Forex Online Training Courses

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Business Ideas

Below is a listing of one hundred and five business ideas thought of by middle and high school students. Hopefully this listing will illustrate the principle that business ideas are a dime a dozen and it is always the execution that counts. I encourage you to read "It’s not the Idea, It’s the Execution" after finishing this article as well as "Business Idea and Opportunity Evaluation."

The following ideas were brainstormed by fourteen high school students in a 90 minute period on July 20, 2003.

1. underwater restaurant
2. spa franchise
3. foldable hammock for car trunks
4. high quality light fixtures
5. health bar chain
6. comfy, damage-free ear phones
7. chair with popcorn holder, tray, built-in radio, massager
8. self-cleaning microwave
9. security software to protect against hackers and credit card scams
10. wholesale store without membership card

11. aerobic center for teenagers
12. chair store w/ imported European chocolate
13. restaurants for dogs and cats
14. oxygen tanks so dogs and cats can go diving
15. computer animation company
16. real estate company
17. cosmetics/hair care company
18. bowling alley in Cartagena, Columbia
19. Store that makes custom clothes
20. electronic translator that you put in your ear
21. fashion design company for new designers that need a start
22. iron rod production
23. selling traditional jewelry
24. brail screen that reads computer and translates the text on a computer into 3D brail that the blind could read
25. lumber company
26. Make a ski board rotating wardrobe at ski resorts
27. flavored straws
28. A grocery store that also had a fitness center
29. a diagonal load dishwasher
30. sushi restaurant
31. Candyland theme park chain
32. web design/advertising company
33. per month CD online company
34. educational software for the visually impaired
35. bringing broadband internet access into developing countries
36. Sonar for blind people
37. voice/data equipment for hospitals
38. drink machine that talks to you.
39. a teddy bear with sensors and small computer inside that would talk to infants/toddlers and encourage good behavior or tell them a bed-time story
40. an online store where you could customize clothing and then have it shipped to you
41. an educational software company that made console games for kids that were actually fun to play.

The following ideas were brainstormed by fourteen middle school students in a 90 minute period on July 27, 2003.

1. New brand of cola
2. Monorail company
3. triangular and circular houses
4. interchangeable shoes
5. internet caf�
6. pens that never from out of ink
7. new type of fuel
8. hovercars
9. new internet service provider
10. college/cheerleader calendars
11. college/male athlete calendars
12. voice-activated radio/TV
13. voice activated hourse
14. remote control finder
15. voice activated keys
16. hydrogen powered cars
17. easy wrinkle remover
18. never-ending bottle of soda
19. underwear with pockets
20. new clothing line
21. donut store
22. shoe pockets
23. wireless TV headseats
24. haircoloring shampoo
25. desks with build in computers
26. text books on computers
27. automatic dog food dispenser
28. remote control lawnmower
29. washer-dryer all in one combo
30. color eye drops
31. mechanical spiders
32. MP3 player watch
33. watch that automatically knows what time zone it’s in
34. butt-wiping toilets
35. better toothpaste
36. virus protection
37. toothbrush with toothpaste in it
38. video phone
39. logo changing shirt
40. solar color changing shirt
41. solar powered sports cars
42. color changing nail polish
43. TV on cell phones
44. personal soda dispenser
45. voice-controlled air conditioning system
46. resort
47. color changing hair bow
48. voice activated elevators
49. phone/tv/radio in a shower
50. sponges with built in soap
51. self-moving furniture
52. multi-colored markets
53. reversible backpacks
54. student tracker system
55. remote to control of your appliances
56. sneakers with comfortable insides
57. auto food/water dispenser for animals for when family is away for a few days
58. vacuum with perfume in it
59. trash can with perfume in it
60. real-looking pony tail that hooks in your hair
61. 3 in 1 paint color can
62. refrigerator that has an alarm for bad food
63. cat food dispenser
64. boats that give a smooth ride

Business Idea and Opportunity Evalution

Business Idea & Opportunity Evalution

In analyzing your business ideas you must be able to pass them through a test to determine if they truly are valid opportunities. All of your ideas must have a demonstrated need, ready market, and ability to provide a solid return on investment.

Is the idea feasible in the marketplace? Is there demand? Can it be done? Are you able to pull together the persons and resources to pull it off before the window of opportunity closes? These questions must be considered and answered.

Opportunity-focused entrepreneurs start with the customer and the market in mind. They analyze the market to determine industry issues, market structure, market size, growth rate, market capacity, attainable market share, cost structure, the core economics, exit strategy issues, time to breakeven, opportunity costs, and barriers to entry. Below are two models that entrepreneurs use to evaluate their business ideas and plans.

Fourteen Questions to Ask Every Time

To evaluate opportunities, entrepreneurs ask the following questions:

1. What is the need you fill or problem you solve? (Value Proposition)
2. Who are you selling to? (Target Market)
3. How would you make money? (Revenue Model)
4. How will you differentiate your company from what is already out there? (Unique selling proposition)
5. What are the barriers to entry?
6. How many competitors do you have and of what quality are they? (Competitive Analysis)
7. How big is your market in dollars? (Market Size)
8. How fast is the market growing or shrinking? (Market Growth)
9. What percent of the market do you believe you could gain? (Market Share)
10. What type of company would this be? (Lifestyle or High Potential, Sole Proprietorship or Corporation)
11. How much would it cost to get started? (Start-up Costs)
12. Do you plan to use debt capital or raise investment? If so, how much and what type? (Investment needs)
13. Do you plan to sell your company or go public (list the company on the stock markets) one day? (Exit Strategy)
14. If you take on investment, how much money do you think your investors will get back in return? (Return on Investment)

Let’s take the above fourteen questions and term them into an easy model that you can use to evaluate your business ideas you come up with. This is called the RAMP model.

The RAMP Model

Let’s start with the first letter, R, which stands for Return. Return really is return on investment.

R	Discuss Exit Strategy (acquisition or IPO)
R	Is it profitable? Will your revenues be higher than your expenses?
R	Time to breakeven (how long before cash flow positive? How long until the company begins to have an aggregate net income)
R	Investment Needed. How much money will it take to start-up this venture. Will it be $20,000, $200,000, or $2,000,000?

Now let’s look at A. A stands for advantages.

A	Look at cost structure (suppliers, what each element will cost to source or manufacture)
A	Barriers to entry (large competitors, regulations, patents, large capital requirements. If there are many barriers to entry, it will be difficult to enter a market. The higher the barriers to entry, the more disadvantaged you will be.
A	Intellectual Property. Do you have a proprietary advantage such as a patents or exclusive licenses on what you will be selling.
A	Distribution Channel. How will you be selling your product? Will you sell it direct to the consumer via the Internet, sell it to wholesales, sell it to businesses, or sell it to retail stores. If can develop a unique distribution channel this can surely be an advantage.

Now let’s look at M. M stands for Market.

M	The Need. Is there a big need for this product or service. Try to avoid ideas that sound cool but there is no real need for. Make sure your product or service fills and need or solves a problem.
M	Target market (who are you selling to? businesses? consumers? what demographics?)
M	Analyze target market (who are you selling to? businesses? consumers? what demographics?)
M	Pricing (what you they charge, what will be the price, will there be a high enough markup).
M	Analyze market size

Finally let’s look at P. P stands for potential.

P	Risk vs. Reward. How risky is the opportunity? If it is very risky, it there a chance for the business to do very well. Will there be a high reward for the founders and investors if the company succeeds?
P	The Team. Is the team right for the business. Do you have knowledge in this area.
P	Timing. Is the market ready for your product. You may have a great idea for flying cars, but if consumers are not ready for your product you may not be able to turn your idea into a successful business.
P	Goal Fit. Does the business concept fit the goals of the team to create a high potential or lifestyle business

Spain: The Hole In Europe's Balance Sheet

Today's offering for this week's Outside the Box starts off with a quote from Titus Maccius Plautus: "I am a rich man as long as I don't pay my creditors." Even 2200 years ago, it seems that problems of credit were an issue.

I talked last Friday about the US being faced with a number of bad choices. But it is not just the US. Today we look at a piece from my friends at Variant Perception based on London. They are a relatively new institutional research house. I have been reading their material for some time and have begun to look very much forward to it. They do some very good in-depth analysis. I asked then to shorten a piece they did on Spain and Spanish banks for this week's Outside the Box. Spain will soon be faced with a number of very uncomfortable choices, but for now they appear in denial.

Dives sum, si non reddo eis quibus debeo.
I am a rich man as long as I don't pay my creditors.

Titus Maccius Plautus (c. 254-184 BCE), "Curculio"

Themes

• Spain = Japan 2.0? - We argue that 1) the real estate crash in Spain is worse than is widely believed, 2) Spanish banks are hiding their losses, and 3) investors are smoking crack if they believe that Spanish banks are among the strongest in Europe, (see Forbes latest Spanish Banks In Top Form). If all these are true, Spain will soon have zombie banks like Japan.

• Banks are hiding losses - We believe that Spanish banks are not marking their real estate loans to market and are extending credit to zombie construction companies. They do this by 1) Getting a boost from accounting changes, 2) Not marking loans to market, 3) Continued lending to zombie companies, 4) Extending 40 year and 100% loan-to-value loans, and other bubble-like lending practices. We look at each of these in turn.

• Spain is in deflation - In a deflationary environment, servicing debt becomes even harder. Even when rates go to zero the real burden of debt goes up. That is why deflation is such a terrible thing. Eastern Europe, Spain and Ireland are now all experiencing the beginning of deflation. We believe that we will see much more deflation to come, which will have broad ramifications across the European banking sector.

• Who's holding the bag? - The periphery countries are net debtors, and the rest of Europe is the net creditor. When a debtor can't pay, the creditor suffers. Germany, France and others will need to cope with recapitalizing the periphery and Spain.

Strategies

We recommend shorting or being underweight Spanish government bonds vs German bonds and short equities, particularly banks, builders and anything related to the consumer.

Spain = Japan 2.0?

We hate to bang on about Spain like an old Salvation Army drum, but we believe that Spain is a disaster waiting to happen. Misunderstanding the severity of the crisis will prove costly to investors as it will have profound implications to the European banking system.

Spain is set for a long, painful deflation that will manifest itself via a very high unemployment level for an industrialized economy, a real estate collapse and general banking insolvencies.

Spain had the mother of all housing bubbles. To put things in perspective, Spain now has as many unsold homes as the US, even though the US is about six times bigger. Spain is roughly 10% of the EU GDP, yet it accounted for 30% of all new homes built since 2000 in the EU. Most of the new homes were financed with capital from abroad, so Spain's housing crisis is closely tied in with a financing crisis.

The impact on the banking sector will be severe. Consider this: the value of outstanding loans to Spanish developers has gone from just €33.5 billion in 2000 to €318 billion in 2008, a rise of 850% in 8 years. If you add in construction sector debts, the overall value of outstanding loans to developers and construction companies rises to €470 billion.
That's almost 50% of Spanish GDP. Most of these loans will go bad.

Spanish banks, in our view, are now facing a very bleak outlook. Spain's unemployment rate reached over 17%; there are now four million unemployed Spaniards and over one million families with not a single person employed in the family.

We argue and will document anecdotally in this report that:

• The real estate crash in Spain is worse than is widely believed, much as the subprime problem was much worse than people believed

• Spanish banks are hiding their losses and rolling over debt to zombie companies, much as Japan did in the last decade

• Investors are deluding themselves if they believe that Spanish banks are among the strongest in the world. (This is a new theme. See Forbes's latest "Spanish Banks In Top Form" for an example of the new fawning articles on Spanish banks.)

If we are right, Spain will soon have zombie banks like Japan and it will face a prolonged period of deflation. However, Spain will be much worse. As Edward Hugh, the doyen of clear-headed analysts of Spain, points out, "Japan in 1992 could leverage its own savings, it had a current account surplus of 3% of GDP. Spain has massive external debt - in 2007 the current account deficit was 10% of GDP - and little in the way of major export industries."

Putting Together A Mosaic

At Variant Perception, we try to stay away from writing too many words. Anything that cannot be explained with a few charts is most likely not worth explaining. In the case of Spanish banking's subterfuge and hiding of bad loans, we have had to assemble a mosaic of news pieces, interviews with banking insiders and others to piece together what is in fact happening. This reminds us very much of the early days of subprime where all the banking results looked good, until they didn't. We believe it will be the same with Spanish real estate.

The Situation In Spanish Housing Is Much Worse Than People Think

The standard line that most analysts buy about Spanish banks is the following:

• Dynamic provisioning - In 2000, Spain's central bank introduced a system of "dynamic provisioning" that forced banks to build up reserves against future losses. Spanish banks reserved three to four times as much as most of their international competitors. In a sense, the Bank of Spain was building countercyclical buffers to prepare for an eventual credit crisis.

• Prudent lending - The large private Spanish banks claim that their risk management led them to concentrate mortgage lending on primary residences in the cities at reasonable loan-to-value ratios, leaving lending to developers and buyers of second homes to the Cajas.

However, despite dynamic provisioning, in the recent rally, Spanish banks have been rushing left, right and centre to shore up their capital. They have mainly done so by tapping their clueless retail customers for investment in preferred shares. It is a good start, but we believe they still have not done enough.

The magnitude of the Spanish problem is staggering, and will overwhelm all the benefits of dynamic provisioning.
Conservatively, Spain has over 1,000,000 unsold homes. Unfortunately, many of the homes are on the coast, and without a return of overleveraged British tourists, they are likely to remain unsold. Spain's homes are all in the wrong places.

Spain's building stocks bubble looks very much like the US bubble and other classic bubbles. It went up 10x and then went down 90%. The math is very simple.

Given this woeful state of affairs, you might assume Spanish house prices had suffered like US house prices. This is not the case.

As the following chart shows, according to official statistics, Spanish house prices are down little more than 10% from their peaks.

Why have Spanish banks not experienced the same fate as American, Irish and UK banks? We've often wondered how it is that our thesis for Spanish real estate and industrial collapse has not created more victims.

We believe that Spanish banks are hiding their problems. We explore how they are doing this through:

1. Getting a boost from accounting changes

2. Not marking loans to market

3. Continued lending to zombie companies

4. Making 40 year and 100% loan-to-value loans

Let's look at them in turn.

1) Getting a boost from accounting changes

The Bank of Spain is thought of as a very conservative, prudent institution. That is true, but it is now changing its tune. It must now be very concerned for the fate of some Spanish banks and some analysts estimate it will help them avoid posting losses this year.

In July the Bank of Spain changed its provisioning rules on risky mortgages. Previously, banks have made provision for the full value of loans above 80% of a loan to value ratio after two years of payment arrears.
Following the new directives from the Bank of Spain, banks now only need to reserve for the difference between the value of the loan and 70% of the property's market value. For many Spanish banks, this has allowed them not to lose money this year.

2) Not marking loans to market

We also believe that Spanish banks are not marking their books to market. According to an article from the 19th of April in Expansión, the Spanish equivalent of the Financial Times, entitled 'Spanish banks control half of all real estate appraisals.' , Spanish banks control 25% of appraisals directly and another 25% indirectly through their shareholdings.

In the words of Expansión:

The valuation of the guarantees of the mortgage book of the cajas and banks and of its real estate gains importance. The thirteen companies tied to financial entities represented 47% of all real estate appraisals in 2007.

The valuation of these real estate assets has taken on new importance for banks in the context of the current economic recession. The valuation of the mortgage guarantees and of the real estate assets they are taking on through the courts and debt for equity swaps is key to calibrate the solvency of the financial system. This situation has placed the focus once again on the links between banks and the real estate appraisers that goes beyond in many cases a mere commercial relationship.

Official housing statistics are not corroborated by anecdotal evidence, web searches and the real estate sales by the banks themselves. According to a study by El Mundo, housing prices in many areas of the coasts have already dropped 30-50%.

Spain also confronts to problems of banks essentially taking on defaulted assets onto their books at the stated value of the mortgage. The following comes from a highly regarded foreign surveyor in Spain, describing what happened to a client who had run into problems:

On the banking side, he stated that one development had already been taken back by the bank. However, the bank had 'bought' the development from the developer for the price of the mortgage. Thus they had converted a non-performing mortgage into a property asset. However, the bank is now the owner of a development it cannot sell and is unlikely to for a number of years and has a debt of its own in the purchase price 'paid'. The banks are not experienced developers/property marketers and thus are building up problems for themselves, which must come to light at sometime, depending upon accounting practices. Alternatively, there is the potential that they are then bundling these discounted properties on to friends or holding property companies with notional loans and interest being rolled up until the property is sold.

3) Rolling over loans to zombie construction companies

In the last few weeks we've seen many Spanish property companies announce that they had refinanced their debt, which will postpone bankruptcy for a time. The latest to announce debt refinancing has been Realia, and before that Aisa, Afirma, Reyal Urbis, and Renta Corporacion. After the debacle of having to seize Colonial and Martinsa-Fadesa in 2008, Spanish banking stocks tanked and few Spanish bank executives want to see a repeat.

This lending to zombie developers will merely postpone the day of reckoning.

Banks have realized that instigating a bankruptcy process when builders can't roll their loans or sell houses isn't good for builders or for them. They now try to give as much rope to the builders as possible so that they don't have to report large defaults. In the words of a banking insider:

As soon as a small business becomes delinquent, even if it is a longstanding client, it is "everyman for himself" and everyone runs away as if he has the plague. But in the case of the big builders, the bank is fed up with taking on more assets and gives them a line of credit so that they can at least pay interests on their existing debts and give them room for two years to see if things fix themselves and if they can pay the loan back.

The willingness of banks to play ball with developers shouldn't come as a surprise. As they say in banking, "If you owe me a million, it is your problem. If you owe me a billion, it is my problem."

4) Offering 100% Loan to Value loans, 40 year mortgages and other bubble-like practices.

Spanish banks are now the largest real estate holders in Spain. They have come to own properties through many different avenues. In order to hide from the effects of the real estate crash, Spanish banks have been buying properties before the loans on them go bad and trying to dispose of them through their own real estate companies. They have also come to own dozens of thousands of homes through debt for equity swaps.
Estimates put the value of property repossessed or swapped for debt by Spanish banks at about €16 billion.

Spanish banks have websites set up to move their stock. Among selling points are: pricing discounts of 25-50%, financial terms of Euribor plus 0% over 40 years, and guarantees to re-purchase the property in the future.

The lending to Spanish developers has been institutionalized in agreements between the banks and the main developer's body, the Asociación de Promotores Constructores de España (APCE). Spanish banks will provide 40 year, 100% loan to value mortgages for any home that is discounted by 20% by a developer. The buyer has no need for a down payment. Santander signed such a deal with the APCE in order to reduce the stock of housing outstanding. This is another way to provide credit indirectly to zombie developers.

What Is The Endgame For Spain?

As we pointed out in the last monthly commentary, Spain's problem is tied in with the problem of the entire European periphery. The boom years following the adoption of the euro provided 1) easy money via negative real interest rates, and 2) overvaluation of prices as measured by real effective exchange rates.

Spain, and the rest of the European periphery, can solve their problems either through massive productivity gains, which is highly unlikely, or through a reduction in wages and prices in the order of 20-30%, which is what will happen slowly and painfully. You could call such a reduction of wages and prices an "internal devaluation".

Such an internal devaluation will imply large losses to domestic banks and to external creditors. In the case of Eastern European countries, the damage will be bad, but not very large. In the case of Spain, writing off mortgage debt will be massive.We estimate that Spanish real estate losses will be over €250 billion when all is said and done.
Clearly Spanish and foreign banks are unwilling to admit to the size of the problem and write off the debt. That is why the losses are being hidden.

Running large trade deficits is a form of dis-saving. Spain's large growth in consumption has had to be financed by the rest of Europe. Spain's trade deficit was among the highest in the world in absolute and relative terms at around 10% of GDP in late 2007.



Indeed, Spain's current account deficit at one stage was the largest in the world besides the United States in absolute terms. The Spanish economy acted like a giant consumer sucking up savings from the rest of Europe.

The high degree of consumption in Spain has mostly come from external borrowing and has not been financed out of existing savings.

How bad is that relative to other countries? Spain's external debt is extremely high in relative and absolute terms. It is among the highest in the world, the fifth largest:

Real Interest Rates: Deflation Is A Bitch

Eastern Europe, Spain and Ireland are now all experiencing the beginning of deflation. We believe that we will see much more deflation to come, which will have broad ramifications across the European banking sector. The periphery countries are net debtors, and the rest of Europe is the net creditor. When a debtor can't pay, the creditor suffers. Germany, France and others will need to cope with recapitalizing the periphery and Spain. In the words of Plautus, "I am a rich man as long as I don't pay my creditors." A deflationary spiral means that most of the debt will need to be written off, and the creditors will have to absorb the losses.

In a deflationary environment, servicing debt becomes even harder. Even when rates go to zero, prices and wages can go down faster and the real burden of debt can still go up. That is why deflation is such a terrible thing.

Spain now has negative CPI and PPI

Inflation in Spain has been negative for the last three months in a row. Spain has not experienced a similar decline in inflation like this in over 47 years. However, the Bank of Spain and the government are behaving like ostriches with their heads in the sand.

The problem with deflation is that even low interest rates are extremely high. Despite massive cuts by the ECB, real interest rates in Spain are still elevated due to negative CPI and PPI.

Spain is not the only country facing deflation. It is a problem for the entire European periphery. Ireland, for example, has the highest rate of deflation in the world. Prices in Ireland are falling at an annual rate of 5.9%, well ahead of the drops in other countries - only Thailand, at 4.4%, comes even close.

We believe that Ireland's experience is what Spain will see more of in the months ahead as the economy slowly adjusts to new realities. Almost all of Ireland's banks have been taken over by the government, and Ireland is struggling to decide how best to dispose of its bad assets. We believe Spain will be much more like Ireland than any of its European neighbours.

Oddly, even though inflation is negative, and unemployment is high, unions are still winning pay rises. Most wage agreements in Spain are reached through collective bargaining on an industry level. So far, wage increases are happening above the ECB's 2% target inflation rate. (It should come as no surprise that businesses try to get around wage bargaining. Last year almost five million jobs were temporary in Spain.)

Given how far out of line wages are with unit labor costs and the reality of deflation in Spain, we see Spain's unemployment level heading towards 25%. With a 25% unemployment rate and a debt deflationary dynamic, how exactly do the banks think they'll be paid back? Who will earn the money to pay the mortgage payments, and how will housing be affordable when wages have been deflated? Assuming the worst has passed in Spain does not pass the common sense test.

We believe Spanish politicians and international investors have grossly misjudged Spain, but events will force them to change their mind. In retrospect Spain will be viewed much like subprime where all the banking results looked good, until they didn't. This is typical of bubbles, and Spain will be no different.

Written by

Variant Perception